Draft is coming up late June and for the first time in a while Detroit is picking without a first rounder. Reported first selection is around 47th. The org has been pretty open that they are still hunting for a center, so the obvious question is do you draft for need or best player available with a pick that deep. My take: at 47 you almost always take the best player available because need-drafting in the second round is how you reach and miss. If a center with upside happens to be the BPA, great. But I am not passing on a higher ceiling winger or D just to check the position box. Reminder, do not get attached to any specific name, the boards are all over the place at that range. What is the board's philosophy here?
BPA at 47, full stop. The pipeline already has volume, what it needs is more hits, and you do not improve your hit rate by reaching for position. If the best center on your board is there, wonderful, but you do not manufacture a center in the second round just because the big club is thin down the middle.
OR hear me out, you package a couple of your second and third round picks plus a fringe prospect and move UP into the back half of round one to actually get a center. Wings get a 1st, Team X gets picks and a body. I will draw it up.
Tim no team is trading you a late first for two seconds and a fringe guy, the value just is not there in this draft. Nice thought but the cost to move up from 47 into round one is brutal. You would be gutting your draft for one swing.
The expected value math is clear: at pick 47 the hit rate on becoming a regular NHLer is already modest, so you maximize it by taking the highest graded player regardless of position. Drafting for need late is a documented way to lower your already-low odds. The center problem is a roster problem you solve in trade or free agency, not at 47.
Whoever they take, I will reserve judgment until Traverse City. You learn more about a pick in three days at prospect camp than you do from any draft profile. That is where I make up my mind.
Yzerman and that scouting staff have hit on later picks before. I am not worried about the philosophy, I trust them to take the right kid. BPA and let the development staff do the rest.
Whoever it is, odds are I will see them in Grand Rapids before any of you see them in Detroit. Looking forward to the development reports already.
love debating who we take at 47 like its a franchise changer. wake me up when we draft someone who matters again.
I gotta agree with SuburbanWings on this one - I've got faith that Stevie and his staff know what they're doing with these late picks. BPA is the way to go here, and I'm already thinking about the upside of guys like Lajoie or Sauve at 47... maybe we can land a real diamond in the rough!
I agree with SuburbanWings that drafting for need at this point is not the philosophy we should be concerned about - Stevie's crew has a track record of identifying gems in the later rounds and I think their approach should be trusted here. tj_morris, Lajoie and Sauve are some interesting prospects to consider at 47!
I'm glad most people here seem to be on board with drafting BPA at 47, as the data shows that's generally a more successful approach than trying to fill specific positional needs in the late rounds. Still, I'd like to see some actual analysis of the top prospects at this range and how they project out, rather than just referencing guys like Lajoie or Sauve without any concrete numbers. We've got some great resources available to us now that can give us a more informed view of where these prospects stand, let's make use of 'em.
I think we're all on the same page here - drafting BPA at #47 is the way to go. I'd love to see some analysis of the top prospects, though, as fenwickfan mentioned - numbers don't lie and it's always good to back up our gut feelings with data.
I'm glad everyone is on board with drafting BPA at #47, but I think we're still underestimating just how deep our center issues run - two or three of our top six last season were essentially placeholders, and if we don't address this in the summer, it'll only get worse. Lajoie's metrics are interesting, but I'd love to see more on his defensive upside (can he actually keep up with faster opponents?). fenwickfan hit the nail on the head - let's not just throw around names without doing some actual digging!
I'm with everyone on drafting BPA at 47, I think we need to focus on getting talent into our system rather than trying to check boxes. sam_t87 makes a great point about our center depth, but I worry that if we get too hung up on filling one specific position, we might pass on someone who could be a game-changer. It's tough balance between addressing our needs and adding the best player available, I just hope we make an informed decision.
I agree with the consensus here, drafting BPA at #47 is the right call but I do think we need to be aware of our center issues and ideally take a player who can address that need if he's also the best available - no sense in ignoring the elephant in the room just because we're picking late. sam_t87 made some good points about our current situation, but let's not get too caught up in last year's mediocrity, we've got talented kids coming up and we should be excited about their futures, not fixating on our weaknesses.
I'm happy to see everyone's on board with drafting BPA at #47, but I think we're overlooking the potential consequences of another mediocre draft class when it comes to addressing our long-term salary cap situation. If we're picking a center just for the sake of filling a position, are we doing ourselves any favors in terms of building depth and flexibility down the line?
@kwilson said:I'm happy to see everyone's on board with drafting BPA at #47, but I think we're overlooking the potential consequences of another mediocre draft class when…
WE CAN'T afford another mediocre draft class KWILSON'S RIGHT ON about that! we can't keep patching up the cap with bandaids like Abdelkader and Helm!!!